Economic Scan - Alberta: 2024
Demographics
Highlights
- In 2024, Alberta's working age population (ages 15 to 64) increased by 4.6% and accounted for 81.7% of the total population in Alberta.
- Youth (ages 15 to 24) made up 18.4% of the working age population in 2024. The unemployment rate for young people was 14.5% in 2024, a 2.3 percentage point increase from 2023.
- Seniors (aged 65 and over) accounted for 18.3% of the total population in Alberta in 2024. In comparison, seniors accounted for 22.2% of the total population nationally.
- Unlike some other provinces and territories, Alberta has a slightly younger population. Alberta's median age is 38 years old, compared to the national median age of 40.3 years old.
Over 4.8 million people lived in Alberta in 2024, a yearly increase of 4.3%. Alberta accounts for 11.8% of Canada's population.
Indigenous people comprised 5.4% of the total provincial population in 2024. Indigenous people had a lower participation rate (66.6%), and a lower employment rate (59.5%) compared to the total population. The unemployment rate for Indigenous people was also higher (10.6%) than the provincial total (7.1%).
In Alberta, 27.8% of the population was a part of a visible minority in the 2021 Census. The highest proportion is South Asian (7.1%), followed by Filipino (5.2%), Black (4.3%) and Chinese (3.9%). Alberta had the second highest proportion of visible minorities in the Western Provinces and Territories.
In 2024, about 27.7% of Alberta's population were landed immigrants. This was the second highest proportion of landed immigrants in the Western Provinces and Territories, behind only B.C. (33.5%). Landed immigrants in Alberta had an unemployment rate of 8.2%, whereas the unemployment rate for the total population was 7.0%.
According to the 2022 Canadian Survey on Disability, 27.5% of Alberta's population aged 15 and over were persons with disabilities (PWD). The unemployment rate for PWD aged 25-64 was 8.9% compared to 7.9% for people without a disability. PWD's also have an employment rate that is 10.9 percentage points lower than that of people without a disability.
Source: Statistics Canada - Canadian Survey on Disability (CSD) 2022.
Labour Market Conditions
In 2024...
Employment increased (+3.1%)
Unemployment rate increased (+1.1pp)
Participation rate decreased (-0.3pp)
Employment rate decreased (-1.0pp)
Show data table
| Year | Unemployment Rate (%) |
|---|---|
| 2014 | 4.8 |
| 2015 | 6.1 |
| 2016 | 8.2 |
| 2017 | 8.0 |
| 2018 | 6.5 |
| 2019 | 6.9 |
| 2020 | 11.4 |
| 2021 | 8.6 |
| 2022 | 5.8 |
| 2023 | 5.9 |
| 2024 | 7.0 |
- In 2024, Alberta's unemployment rate increased by 1.1 percentage points to 7.0%, as gains in the labour force outpaced employment growth. Year-over-year, the number of unemployed people in Alberta increased by 24% to 189,400.
- The provincial labour force increased by 4.3% in 2024 due in part to a large volume of immigration and interprovincial migrants having moved to Alberta.
- The majority of Alberta's working age population are men (53.1%), as employment among men increased by 3.2% in 2024. In comparison, employment among working age women increased by 2.9% over the year.
Economic Conditions
Alberta's Economic Drivers in 2024
Strong population growth
Increased oil and gas sector production
Increased housing starts
Source: The Conference Board of Canada. Provincial Five-Year Outlook. November 2024.
Show data table
| Year | Forecasted GDP Growth Rate in Alberta |
|---|---|
| 2024 | 2.2% |
| 2025 | 2.1% |
| 2026 | 2.3% |
| 2027 | 2.5% |
Reviewing 2024...
- Employment growth had difficulty keeping up with a growing labour force. Alberta's unemployment rate was above the national average for most of 2024.
- Oil producers continued to ramp up production following completion of the Trans Mountain Expansion Project. The expanded pipeline has increased capacity from 300,000 to 890,000 barrels per day, allowing oil producers to access more foreign markets.
- In July 2024, the Jasper Townsite was devastated by wildfire which destroyed roughly a third of the community. With insured damages estimated to be $1.23 billion, reconstruction efforts are ongoing.
Risks to the Alberta Economy in 2025
- Alberta has experienced extreme weather conditions for the past few years, including droughts brought on by dry, hot summers. Should the trend continue, 2025 could see another difficult wildfire season and further damages in the millions of dollars.
- Uncertainty pertaining to U.S. tariffs will have a negative impact on Alberta's economy, particularly its oil and gas exports. Accessing and expanding into new markets may alleviate some pressure.
- Prolonged labour market challenges, such as the labour force growing more rapidly than employer demand may drive up the unemployment rate.
Regional Issues
Migration
A strong economy and relatively affordable cost of living, coupled with the province's Alberta is Calling campaign made Alberta an attractive destination for interprovincial migrants. In 2023/2024 net interprovincial migration to Alberta was 43,750.
Industry Trends
Show data table
| Industry (NAICS) | Employment Change ('000s) | Percent Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas | +18.5 | +13.6 |
| Accommodation and food services | +13.0 | +9.9 |
| Public administration | +11.2 | +10.1 |
| Business, building and other support services | +7.6 | +10.0 |
| Manufacturing | +6.8 | +4.6 |
| Educational services | +6.7 | +4.1 |
| Construction | +6.4 | +2.7 |
| Health care and social assistance | +6.2 | +1.9 |
| Finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing | +6.0 | +4.7 |
| Other services (except public administration) | +5.5 | +5.5 |
| Information, culture and recreation | +4.8 | +5.9 |
| Transportation and warehousing | +4.1 | +2.9 |
| Utilities | +0.7 | +3.5 |
| Professional, scientific and technical services | -3.2 | -1.3 |
| Wholesale and retail trade | -7.6 | -2.1 |
| Agriculture | -10.4 | -22.3 |
- A strong economy in Alberta led to job gains in most industries, except for agriculture (-10,400 jobs), wholesale and retail trade (-7,600 jobs) and professional, scientific, and technical services (-3,200 jobs).
- The construction industry gained 6,400 jobs in 2024 due in part to an increase in residential construction and several large-scale projects currently underway across the province.
- Employment in the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction industry increased by 17,900 jobs in 2024. Uncertainty clouds the outlook for this industry due to the risk of tariffs from the U.S.
- The health care and social assistance sector gained 6,200 jobs annually in 2024. The industry is undergoing a transformation as the Government of Alberta is in the process of reforming health care services into four separate health agencies.
Regional Economic Conditions
- Robust economic growth led to increases in employment in every economic region in Alberta, except for Wood Buffalo-Cold Lake.
- Red Deer had the highest regional employment growth in 2024, at 6.4%. Despite more people finding employment, the region's unemployment rate grew by 0.4 percentage points to 7.5%.
- Calgary and Edmonton economic regions were tied for the second highest unemployment rate, at 7.4%. The unemployment rates increased by 1.4 and 1.3 percentage points respectively in 2024.
Employment Change by Economic Region, 2024
Show data table
| Economic Region | Percent Change (%) | Employment Change ('000s) |
|---|---|---|
| Red Deer | +6.4 | +6.9 |
| Banff-Jasper-Rocky Mountain House and Athabasca-Grande Prairie-Peace River | +5.9 | +11.1 |
| Calgary | +4.8 | +46.5 |
| Lethbridge-Medicine Hat | +3.7 | +5.8 |
| Alberta | +3.1 | +76.3 |
| Camrose-Drumheller | +1.2 | +1.2 |
| Edmonton | +0.7 | +6.3 |
| Wood Buffalo-Cold Lake | -1.7 | -1.3 |
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